Ebook , by Daniel Kahneman
Ebook , by Daniel Kahneman
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, by Daniel Kahneman
Ebook , by Daniel Kahneman
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Product details
File Size: 6041 KB
Print Length: 528 pages
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux; 1 edition (October 25, 2011)
Publication Date: October 25, 2011
Sold by: Macmillan
Language: English
ASIN: B00555X8OA
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Daniel Kahneman is a renowned psychologist, who won a Nobel Prize in Economics. His work (and that of his late partner, Amos Tversky), and that of a network of colleagues in a similar path, has had an effect on how we see human decision-making. In the social sciences and economics, rationality is a key assumption about human thinking. Kahneman and Tversky and others have put that assumption in the cross hairs of their research. Indeed, some of my own research in political thinking by American citizens is based on this body of work.In this work, Kahneman begins by noting two systems of thinking. System 1 is automatic, quick, and intuitive. It is decision making by shortcuts. Normally, it works fairly well, but it can also lead to bad decisions. When the stakes are low, even the downside isn't too bad. For major decisions? Well, that can be problematic. The operations of System 2 are (Page 21) "often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration." This is the realm of reason and conscious thinking. System 1 tends to be nonconscious.Part I considers more deeply the operation of Systems 1 and 2. We learn, for example, that System 2 can be lazy and let System 1 "do its thing" without conscious control over those processes.Part II addresses biases in decision making. This includes the operation of decision making shortcuts, or "heuristics." These are tools that assist decision making and make it quick and easy--and sometimes very wrong. For instance, the law of small numbers. Many people are very confident that judgments that they make based upon a few examples are apt to be correct--even though there is scant statistical indication of this. We do not easily think in terms of probability and statistics. Or availability. We often make decisions based on what pops into our short term memory first, that which is most "available" for retrieval. Or regression to the mean. If someone scores extremely high on the GREs, it is common that the next test would result in lower scores. Why? Many times, very high scores are the result of good luck. Reality will return in such cases, as the next score is likely to revert to a more normal result.Part III? A series of chapters on overconfidence. It is disconcerting to realize that a lot of our decisions are based on shortcuts that can sometimes go way wrong. Worse, there is plenty of research that shows that once people make decisions, they become overconfident in how good those decisions are. Part IV examines choices. One of the more powerful aspects of Kahneman's and Tversky's work is "prospect theory." Once more, we see skewed decision making at work--far from the realm of rational cost benefit calculators. One key finding here: People tend to be risk averse when they are in positive ground; people are risk takers in negative situations. Example: If you are getting an A in a course and anticipate that that will be your final grade, you are unlikely to cheat. Why? You have a lot to lose and little to gain. On the other hand, if you're facing a D or F, you are, according to many studies, more apt to cheat. The relevance? Some urge being touch on cheaters as a way of deterring academic dishonesty. But someone who is in bad shape to begin with is less likely to be deterred in such a circumstance.The last part is a reflection on the meaning of all that went before. Also helpful is that some of the major pieces of research are attached as appendices. These may be slow going for some people, but if the reader can wade through them, they get a good sense of how this book came to its conclusions.A very fine book, well written, that makes important research accessible to a larger audience.
First, for reasons explained below I would not buy this as an audio book.I have mixed feelings about this book for various reasons. The first 200 pages (Part 1 and 2) are heavily focused on the author trying to convince the reader that it is better to think statistically rather than instinctively / intuitively. After stating countless studies to support his premise, the author (very briefly) in Chapter 21 admits that “formulas based on statistics or on common sense†are both good forms to develop valued algorithms – Doesn’t common sense fit into instinct or intuition? Later in the same chapter the author concedes that intuition adds value but only to the extent that the individual bases it off sufficient research. To me, the way most of the book was written, especially in Parts 1 and 2, was a little over the top. The chapters are short and each one cites at least one study that the author or someone else performed. It becomes example after example after example and redundant. The beginning chapters seem as if the author put a group of journal articles together to develop part of the book. Don’t get me wrong, many of the studies are really interesting and I find them very helpful, I just believe that it became a little redundant. However, there is some evidence that also says that many of the studies referenced in this book were not able to be reproduced, adding more speculation on the evidence supporting the author’s premise.Furthermore, the book is very interactive with the reader and some parts are a little condescending. For example, in the Introduction, the author poses a question to the reader asking whether or not a personality description means the person in question is a farmer or a librarian. Rather than assuming that the multitude of readers may come up with different responses, the author states “Did it occur to you that there are more than 20 male farmers.†While I understand where the author was going with the question, the author presumed that the readers would only answer one way and this recurs throughout the book. Another example in Chapter 16 assumed that the reader came up with the wrong answer and even stated that the most common answer to this question is wrong, however, the author does not explain how to come up with the correct answer.Since this book is very interactive, I wouldn’t purchase the audio book. I do have both the hard copy and the audio book and further noticed that there were a few mistakes between the hard copy and the audio. Sometimes the mistake was quite minimal such as words were flip-flopped but at the end of Chapter 17 the author asks a question which requires some thought and work by the reader. The total in the audiobook was completely off. Instead of stating the total at 81 million (as in the hard copy) the audio book read it as 61 million and the Total for another part of the question in the same example was 67.1 million in the audio book instead of 89.1 million as the hard copy stated.All in all, a good part of the book is intriguing. The author clearly has conducted extensive research throughout his career and was able to present much of it in this book in a form that would be comprehensible to non-econ and non-psychology persons.
Content is interesting, but as other reviewers point out, do not buy the Kindle version, because links often don't work, and many images and footnotes seem to be lost.
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